Wastewater monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 shows high correlation with COVID-19 case numbers and allowed early detection of the first confirmed B.1.1.529 infection in Switzerland: results of an observational surveillance study.

AIMS OF THE STUDY: Wastewater-based epidemiology has contributed significantly to the comprehension of the dynamics of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Its additional value in monitoring SARS-CoV-2 circulation in the population and identifying newly arising variants independently of diagnostic testing is now undisputed. As a proof of concept, we report here correlations between SARS-CoV-2 detection in wastewater and the officially recorded COVID-19 case numbers, as well as the validity of such surveillance to detect emerging variants, exemplified by the detection of the B.1.1.529 variant Omicron in Basel, Switzerland. METHODS: From July 1 to December 31, 2021, wastewater samples were collected six times a week from the inflow of the local wastewater treatment plant that receives wastewater from the catchment area of the city of Basel, Switzerland, comprising 273,075 inhabitants. The number of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies was determined by reverse transcriptase-quantitative PCR. Spearman's rank correlation coefficients were calculated to determine correlations with the median seven-day incidence of genome copies per litre of wastewater and official case data. To explore delayed correlation effects between the seven-day median number of genome copies/litre wastewater and the median seven-day incidence of SARS-CoV-2 cases, time-lagged Spearman's rank correlation coefficients were calculated for up to 14 days. RNA extracts from daily wastewater samples were used to genotype circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants by next-generation sequencing. RESULTS: The number of daily cases and the median seven-day incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the catchment area showed a high correlation with SARS-CoV-2 measurements in wastewater samples. All correlations between the seven-day median number of genome copies/litre wastewater and the time-lagged median seven-day incidence of SARS-CoV-2 cases were significant (p<0.001) for the investigated lag of up to 14 days. Correlation coefficients declined constantly from the maximum of 0.9395 on day 1 to the minimum of 0.8016 on day 14. The B.1.1.529 variant Omicron was detected in wastewater samples collected on November 21, 2021, before its official acknowledgement in a clinical sample by health authorities. CONCLUSIONS: In this proof-of-concept study, wastewater-based epidemiology proved a reliable and sensitive surveillance approach, complementing routine clinical testing for mapping COVID-19 pandemic dynamics and observing newly circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants.

SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Alpha and Delta Variant Breakthrough Infections Are Rare and Mild but Can Happen Relatively Early after Vaccination.

(1) Background: Some COVID-19 vaccine recipients show breakthrough infection. It remains unknown, which factors contribute to risks and severe outcomes. Our aim was to identify risk factors for SCoV2 breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated individuals. (2) Methods: We conducted a retrospective case-control study from 28 December 2020 to 25 October 2021. Data of all patients with breakthrough infection was compared to data of all vaccine recipients in the Canton of Basel-City, Switzerland. Further, breakthrough infections by Alpha- and Delta-variants were compared. (3) Results: Only 0.39% (488/126,586) of all vaccine recipients suffered from a breakthrough infection during the observational period, whereof most cases were asymptomatic or mild (97.2%). Breakthrough infections after full vaccination occurred in the median after 78 days (IQR 47-123.5). Factors with lower odds for breakthrough infection were age (OR 0.987) and previous COVID-19 infection prior to vaccination (OR 0.296). Factors with higher odds for breakthrough infection included vaccination with Pfizer/BioNTech instead of Moderna (OR 1.459), chronic disease (OR 2.109), and healthcare workers (OR 1.404). (4) Conclusions: Breakthrough infections are rare and mild but can occur early after vaccination. This implies that booster vaccination might be initiated earlier, especially for risk groups. Due to new variants emerging repeatedly, continuous monitoring of breakthrough infections is crucial.

Determinants of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to guide vaccination strategy in an urban area.

Transmission chains within small urban areas (accommodating ∼30 per cent of the European population) greatly contribute to case burden and economic impact during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and should be a focus for preventive measures to achieve containment. Here, at very high spatio-temporal resolution, we analysed determinants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in a European urban area, Basel-City (Switzerland). We combined detailed epidemiological, intra-city mobility and socio-economic data sets with whole-genome sequencing during the first SARS-CoV-2 wave. For this, we succeeded in sequencing 44 per cent of all reported cases from Basel-City and performed phylogenetic clustering and compartmental modelling based on the dominating viral variant (B.1-C15324T; 60 per cent of cases) to identify drivers and patterns of transmission. Based on these results we simulated vaccination scenarios and corresponding healthcare system burden (intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy). Transmissions were driven by socio-economically weaker and highly mobile population groups with mostly cryptic transmissions which lacked genetic and identifiable epidemiological links. Amongst more senior population transmission was clustered. Simulated vaccination scenarios assuming 60-90 per cent transmission reduction and 70-90 per cent reduction of severe cases showed that prioritising mobile, socio-economically weaker populations for vaccination would effectively reduce case numbers. However, long-term ICU occupation would also be effectively reduced if senior population groups were prioritised, provided there were no changes in testing and prevention strategies. Reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission through vaccination strongly depends on the efficacy of the deployed vaccine. A combined strategy of protecting risk groups by extensive testing coupled with vaccination of the drivers of transmission (i.e. highly mobile groups) would be most effective at reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within an urban area.

SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in a tri-national urban area is dominated by a B.1 lineage variant linked to a mass gathering event.

The first case of SARS-CoV-2 in Basel, Switzerland was detected on February 26th 2020. We present a phylogenetic study to explore viral introduction and evolution during the exponential early phase of the local COVID-19 outbreak from February 26th until March 23rd. We sequenced SARS-CoV-2 naso-oropharyngeal swabs from 746 positive tests that were performed at the University Hospital Basel during the study period. We successfully generated 468 high quality genomes from unique patients and called variants with our COVID-19 Pipeline (COVGAP), and analysed viral genetic diversity using PANGOLIN taxonomic lineages. To identify introduction and dissemination events we incorporated global SARS-CoV-2 genomes and inferred a time-calibrated phylogeny. Epidemiological data from patient questionnaires was used to facilitate the interpretation of phylogenetic observations. The early outbreak in Basel was dominated by lineage B.1 (83·6%), detected first on March 2nd, although the first sample identified belonged to B.1.1. Within B.1, 68·2% of our samples fall within a clade defined by the SNP C15324T ('Basel cluster'), including 157 identical sequences at the root of the 'Basel cluster', some of which we can specifically trace to regional spreading events. We infer the origin of B.1-C15324T to mid-February in our tri-national region. The other genomes map broadly over the global phylogenetic tree, showing several introduction events from and/or dissemination to other regions of the world via travellers. Family transmissions can also be traced in our data. A single lineage variant dominated the outbreak in the Basel area while other lineages, such as the first (B.1.1), did not propagate. A mass gathering event was the predominant initial source of cases, with travel returners and family transmissions to a lesser extent. We highlight the importance of adding specific questions to epidemiological questionnaires, to obtain data on attendance of large gatherings and their locations, as well as travel history, to effectively identify routes of transmissions in up-coming outbreaks. This phylogenetic analysis in concert with epidemiological and contact tracing data, allows connection and interpretation of events, and can inform public health interventions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04351503.

Efficacy of pragmatic same-day ring prophylaxis for adult individuals exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in Switzerland (COPEP): protocol of an open-label cluster randomised trial.

INTRODUCTION: Lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) has been proposed as repurposed drugs for pre-exposure and postexposure prophylaxis as well as therapy of COVID-19. Coronavirus postexposure prophylaxis (COPEP) trial aims at assessing their efficacy as postexposure ring-prophylaxis among adults exposed to SARS-CoV-2. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: COPEP is a two-arm open-label cluster-randomised trial conducted in three cantons of Switzerland. Asymptomatic contacts (≥16 years) of individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 will be randomised (2:1) to either LPV/r (400 mg/100 mg two times per day) for 5 days, or a standard of care arm (no treatment). Asymptomatic individuals may be either SARS-CoV-2 positive or negative. Contacts living in the single household will form a cluster and will be randomised into the same arm. All participants will be followed-up for 21 days and undergo daily monitoring for COVID-19 symptoms. The primary endpoint is 21-day incidence of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 with ≥1 compatible symptom, analysed in an intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis. The secondary endpoints include the 21-day incidence of COVID-19 as well as SARS-CoV-2 infection in a modified ITT analysis, excluding participants who had a positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR from oropharyngeal swab and/or a positive SARS-CoV-2 IgG serology at baseline. Assuming a 21-day incidence for COVID-19 of 20% among contacts without postexposure chemoprophylaxis, to detect a relative risk reduction of 60% (ie, translating in an absolute reduction from 20% to 8%), with a power of 80%, an alpha of 5%. Accounting for design effect of cluster design of circa 1.1, we plan to enrol 200 participants to the LPV/r arm and 100 to the standard of care arm, 300 participants in total. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been granted by the Commission Cantonale d'Ethique de la Recherche, Ethikkommission Nordwest- und Zentralschweiz and Comitato Etico Cantonale (ref 2020-00864) and Swissmedic (2020DR3056). Results from this trial will be disseminated via journal articles and presentations at national and international conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Clinicaltrials.gov Registry (NCT04364022); Swiss National Clinical Trial Portal Registry (SNCTP 000003732). REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER: CCER 2020-0864.

Reproductive number of the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland with a focus on the Cantons of Basel-Stadt and Basel-Landschaft.

The reproductive number in Switzerland was between 1.5 and 2 during the first third of March, and has consistently decreased to around 1. After the announcement of the latest strict measure on 20 March 2020, namely that gatherings of more than five people in public spaces are prohibited, the reproductive number dropped significantly below 1; the authors of this study estimate the reproductive number to be between 0.6 and 0.8 in the first third of April.